A model to predict long-term sustained response to interferon therapy in chronic hepatitis C

• Published in: Journal of viral hepatitis Vol. 4; no. 3; pp. 193 - 198
• Main Authors: Noventa, F., De Salvo, G. L., Chemello, L., Pontisso, P., Alberti, A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.05.1997
• Subjects: Adult; Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use; Chronic Disease; chronic hepatitis C; Female; Hepatitis C - drug therapy; hepatitis C virus; Humans; interferon therapy; Interferon-alpha - therapeutic use; Logistic Models; logistic regression; Male; Middle Aged; Models, Biological; predictive model; Probability; Time Factors
• ISSN: 1352-0504; 1365-2893
• DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2893.1997.00137.x

Interferon therapy is used widely for chronic hepatitis C but only a minority of treated patients achieve a long‐lasting sustained response. We have developed, by logistic regression, a mathematical model to estimate the probability of sustained response in an individual patient with chronic hepatitis C when treated with interferon‐α (IFN‐α). The model, which includes age, sex, disease duration, pretreatment serum γ‐glutamyl‐transpeptidase, alanine aminotransferase and virus genotype, was developed from a database of 307 patients and validated in a new set of 200 patients. It performed well as goodness‐of‐fit (P= 0.71 and P= 0.15 in the development and test sample, respectively) and discrimination (area under receiver operating curve = 0.79 in the development and 0.78 in the test sample, respectively). This model may provide decision support in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C with IFN‐α.