Nonlinear influence of per capita carbon emissions, newborn birth rate, renewable energy, industrialization, and economic growth on urbanization: New evidence from panel threshold model

• Published in: Energy strategy reviews Vol. 51; p. 101305
• Main Authors: Gao, Shuning, Jiang, Jikun, Zhu, Shenglai, Aslam, Bilal, Wang, Weihao
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.01.2024; Elsevier
• Subjects: Newborn birth rate; Panel threshold model; Per capita carbon emissions; Renewable energy; Urbanization; Urbanization; Panel threshold model; Newborn birth rate; Renewable energy; Per capita carbon emissions
• ISSN: 2211-467X; 2211-467X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101305

Global climate issues are a serious impediment to green and sustainable urban development. The purpose of this study is to explore the influence of structural change on urbanization in terms of population, energy, industry, and economics while accounting for per capita carbon emissions. In this article, three income groups are defined using the World Bank database's income criteria, and panel data for 132 countries and three income groups is regressed using a panel threshold model from 1997 to 2021. The threshold variable in this framework is carbon emissions per capita, and the explained variable is urbanization; the explanatory factors are population structure (newborn birth rate), energy structure (renewable energy), industry structure (industrialization), and economic structure (GDP). The study's findings revealed that: (1) the newborn birth rate and renewable energy inhibit urbanization; however, the mediating effect of per capita carbon emissions mitigates this phenomenon. (2) The impact of industrialization on urban development has gradually become positive, mediated by per capita carbon emissions. (3) The mediating effect of per capita carbon emissions has increased economic growth's contribution to urbanization. (4) For high-, middle-, and low-income groups, there is some variability in the non-linear connection between the variables; in particular, the association between the newborn birth rate, renewable energy, and urbanization is more substantial. Finally, based on the study's findings, important policy suggestions in terms of structural determinants and heterogeneity are presented for policymakers all around the globe to use as a guide for implementing global urban-environmentally sustainable development plans. •Exploring the nonlinear effects of population, energy, industry, and economic structure on urbanization.•Introducing per capita carbon emissions as a threshold variable, analyzed using a panel threshold regression model.•Newborn birth rate and renewable energy inhibit urbanization development.•Industrialization and economic growth promote urbanization development.