Planning sustainable electric-power system with carbon emission abatement through CDM under uncertainty

• Published in: Applied energy Vol. 140; pp. 350 - 364
• Main Authors: Zhou, Y., Li, Y.P., Huang, G.H.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 15.02.2015
• Subjects: Carbon; Carbon emission abatement; Clean development mechanism; Electric power system; Emission; EPS; Fuzzy programming; Intervals; Planning; Policies; Reduction; Renewable energy; Solar power generation; Uncertainty; China, People's Rep., Guangdong Prov; China, People's Rep., Guangdong Prov., Shenzhen; Clean development mechanism; Electric power system; Uncertainty; Fuzzy programming; Planning; Carbon emission abatement
• ISSN: 0306-2619; 1872-9118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.11.057

•An innovative optimization method is proposed for handling uncertainties.•The method is applied to a real case of municipal electric power system planning.•Sustainable electric power system’s transition pathways are explored.•Benefits of introducing CDM into Shenzhen’s electric power system are analyzed.•Results can support enactment of future policies with carbon emission abatement. In this study, a fuzzy-interval possibilistic programming (FIPP) method is developed for supporting sustainable electric power system (EPS) planning with carbon emission abatement under uncertainty. In FIPP, systematic uncertainties expressed as crisp intervals and fuzzy-boundary intervals can be effectively tackled. A FIPP-based clean development mechanism (FIPP-CDM) model is formulated for realizing CO2-emission reduction and adjusting energy mix of Shenzhen’s EPS with cost-effective and sustainable ways. Located in the south of Guangdong Province of southern China, the City of Shenzhen is one of fastest-growing cities in the world and has experienced high-speed economic development, accelerated industrialization process, and increased population growth. This is the first attempt to introduce CDM into Shenzhen’s EPS with carbon emission abatement, while sustainable EPS’s transition pathways are explored through FIPP-CDM model. Results demonstrate that (a) city’s energy supply structure tends to the transition from coal-dominated into clean energy-dominated; (b) local renewable energy development is motivated through CDM projects; (c) city’s power generation mix is diversified by wind power and solar power, while renewable energy accounts for 2.12%; (d) an additional capacity of [4.88, 5.82]GW of CDM projects is added, contributing to a [15.91, 17.22] % reduction in CO2 emission of fossil fuel-fired power (i.e., corresponding to emission-reduction of [71.59, 85.51] million tonne). Decision alternatives under CDM can facilitate policy enactment of carbon-emission abatement, reformation of Shenzhen’s EPS through market-oriented mechanism, as well as achievement of sustainable EPS planning.