Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case

• Published in: The Journal of the Operational Research Society Vol. 62; no. 3; pp. 413 - 424
• Main Authors: Caniato, F, Kalchschmidt, M, Ronchi, S
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Taylor & Francis 01.03.2011; Palgrave Macmillan; Palgrave Macmillan UK; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Accuracy; Action research; Analytical forecasting; Bias; Business and Management; Business structures; Case-Oriented Papers; Cement; Construction industry; Economic conditions; Employment forecasting; Forecasting; Forecasting models; implementation; Investigations; Literature reviews; Management; Operations research; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Organizational learning; Research methods; Sales forecasting; Sales personnel; Statistical analysis; Statistical forecasts; Statistical methods; Studies; Time series forecasting; Weather forecasting; forecasting; action research; implementation
• ISSN: 0160-5682; 1476-9360
• DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.142

This article examines the integration of quantitative and judgmental forecasting, focusing on the implementation process and its impacts on the organization. To this end, the study is based on an action research case study in the cement industry. Empirical evidence highlights the critical change management issues that need to be dealt with to implement an integrated forecasting system. The implementation phase needs to be carried out carefully to gain acceptance within the organization and to provide the best results. In addition, the forecasting process and organization need to be aligned to allow a two-way flow of information from the periphery to the centre and vice versa to allow the integration of the two approaches. In this way, not only can forecasting accuracy be improved, but better knowledge and consensus within the organization can also be achieved.