Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene

• Published in: Nature climate change Vol. 12; no. 2; pp. 156 - 162
• Main Authors: Wing, Oliver E. J., Lehman, William, Bates, Paul D., Sampson, Christopher C., Quinn, Niall, Smith, Andrew M., Neal, Jeffrey C., Porter, Jeremy R., Kousky, Carolyn
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.02.2022; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/106/242; 704/106/694/2739; 704/242; Anthropocene; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate models; Earth and Environmental Science; Environment; Environmental impact; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Environmental risk; Flood control; Flood mapping; Flood risk; Flooding; Floods; History; Mapping; Mitigation; Risk; United States > US
• ISSN: 1758-678X; 1758-6798
• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01265-6

Current flood risk mapping, relying on historical observations, fails to account for increasing threat under climate change. Incorporating recent developments in inundation modelling, here we show a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change alone under RCP4.5. Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolution flood risk estimates in the United States indicates current average annual losses of US$32.1 billion (US$30.5–33.8 billion) in 2020’s climate, which are borne disproportionately by poorer communities with a proportionally larger White population. The future increase in risk will disproportionately impact Black communities, while remaining concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Furthermore, projected population change (SSP2) could cause flood risk increases that outweigh the impact of climate change fourfold. These results make clear the need for adaptation to flood and emergent climate risks in the United States, with mitigation required to prevent the acceleration of these risks. Climate change is increasing flood risk, yet models based on historical data alone cannot capture the impact. Granular mapping of national flood risk shows that losses caused by flooding in the United States will increase substantially by 2050 and disproportionately burden less advantaged communities.