What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars

• Published in: Defence and peace economics Vol. 30; no. 5; pp. 570 - 591
• Main Authors: Armey, Laura E., McNab, Robert M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland Routledge 29.07.2019; Taylor & Francis LLC
• Subjects: Civil war; conflict; Defense spending; development; Expenditures; Falls; Government spending; institutions; Military; military expenditure; outcomes of war; Peace; Termination; War
• ISSN: 1024-2694; 1476-8267
• DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1405235

This paper examines the impact of civil war on military expenditure. We employ two measures of military expenditure: the share of military expenditure in general government expenditure and the logarithm of military expenditures. We would reasonably expect a priori that military expenditure as a share of general government expenditure increases during a civil war and that such increases would taper off over the duration of a civil war. We also explore whether the termination of a civil war induces a decline in the share of military expenditure as a share of the general government expenditure in the short-run. We find evidence the of share of military expenditure increases during a civil war and falls in the year succeeding the end of a civil war, and, in particular, if a war ends in a peace treaty. The level of military expenditures, however, rises during civil wars and does not appear to decline in the short-term after the end of a civil war.