Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19

While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detai...

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Published inNature human behaviour Vol. 4; no. 9; pp. 964 - 971
Main Authors Aleta, Alberto, Martín-Corral, David, Pastore Y Piontti, Ana, Ajelli, Marco, Litvinova, Maria, Chinazzi, Matteo, Dean, Natalie E, Halloran, M Elizabeth, Longini, Jr, Ira M, Merler, Stefano, Pentland, Alex, Vespignani, Alessandro, Moro, Esteban, Moreno, Yamir
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Nature Publishing Group 01.09.2020
Subjects
Betacoronavirus
Boston - epidemiology
Censuses
Clinical Laboratory Techniques - statistics & numerical data
Contact tracing
Contact Tracing - statistics & numerical data
Coronavirus Infections - diagnosis
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 Testing
Disease transmission
Family Characteristics
Health care
Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data
Humans
Immunity
Infection Control - methods
Infection Control - statistics & numerical data
Intervention
Mobility
Models, Statistical
Pandemics
Pandemics - prevention & control
Pandemics - statistics & numerical data
Pneumonia, Viral - diagnosis
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Boston
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Summary:While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
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Authors’ contributions A.A., D.M-C., M.A., A.V., E.M. and Y.M. designed research; A.A. performed research with contributions from D.M-C.; A.A., D.M-C., M.A., A.V., E.M., and Y.M. analyzed the results. A.V. and Y.M. wrote the first draft of the manuscript; A.A., D.M-C., A. PyP., M.A., M.L., M.C., N.E.D., M.E.H., I.M.L., S.M., A.P., and E.M. discussed results and edited the manuscript. All authors approved the final version.
ISSN:2397-3374
2397-3374
DOI:10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9