Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social–ecological systems

• Published in: Ambio Vol. 53; no. 7; pp. 1015 - 1036
• Main Authors: Cremin, Emilie, Ladd, Cai J. T., Balke, Thorsten, Banerjee, Sumana, Bui, Ly H., Ghosh, Tuhin, Large, Andy, Thi Van Le, Hue, Nguyen, Kien V., Nguyen, Lan X., Nguyen, Tanh T. N., Nguyen, Vinh, Pal, Indrajit, Szabo, Sylvia, Tran, Ha, Sebesvari, Zita, Khan, Shah Alam, Renaud, Fabrice G.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.07.2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agriculture; Atmospheric Sciences; Conservation of Natural Resources; Deltas; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecological effects; Ecology; Economic development; Ecosystem; Ecosystems; Environment; Environmental changes; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology; Environmental Management; Land management; Land use; Land use management; Literature reviews; Physical Geography; Review; Rivers; Rural land use; Social-ecological systems; Sustainability; Sustainable Development; Tipping points; River deltas; Social–ecological systems; Sustainable development; Cascading effects; Systematic literature review
• ISSN: 0044-7447; 1654-7209
• DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01978-2

The sustainability of social–ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger “negative” or “positive” tipping points depending on actors’ perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world’s river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social–ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.