Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting post-operative in-hospital poor outcome in abdominal related emergency general surgery diseases complicated with sepsis

• Published in: Chinese medical journal Vol. 134; no. 20; pp. 2512 - 2514
• Main Authors: Sheng, Wei-Yong, Cheng, Ping, Xu, Peng, Chen, Qing-Yong, Wang, Yang, Zhang, Jin-Xiang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: China Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 28.01.2021; Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Ovid Technologies; Wolters Kluwer
• Subjects: Abdomen; Age; Committees; Correspondence; Decision making; Disease; Hospitals; Humans; Morbidity; Nomograms; Patients; Physiology; Postoperative Period; Sepsis; Surgery
• ISSN: 0366-6999; 2542-5641; 2542-5641
• DOI: 10.1097/CM9.0000000000001378

[...]this study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting post-operative in-hospital outcome in abdominal related EGS diseases complicated with sepsis. Based on the properties of our EGS department procedures and the regional characteristics of medical insurance policy and the doctor-patient relationship, the in-hospital poor outcome was defined as the post-operative length of stay >15 days or post-operative death. Even though the anatomical severity graded by other parameters may be different from the intra-operative findings, the agreement among these parameters was moderate-strong with a kappa in the study of some EGS single diseases. Besides the sufficient predictive and personalized significance shown in our nomogram, it also carried clinical preventive significance, which fully expresses the advanced medical concept of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine. [...]the stepwise regression model may not capture variables that may be significant but get discounted as other variables are selected.