When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants

Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPublic choice Vol. 169; no. 3/4; pp. 293 - 313
Main Authors Gassebner, Martin, Gutmann, Jerg, Voigt, Stefan
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York Springer Science + Business Media 01.12.2016
Springer US
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Coups d'etat
Economic development
Economic growth
Economics
Economics and Finance
Economists
International
Islamization
Political behavior
Political Science
Political scientists
Politics
Public Finance
Statistical analysis
Variables
Germany
Africa
D74
F52
Coup-proofing
Extreme bounds analysis
H56
Military coups
K10
Coups d’état
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Summary:Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952–2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.
ISSN:0048-5829
1573-7101
DOI:10.1007/s11127-016-0365-0