Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100

• Published in: Scientific reports Vol. 13; no. 1; p. 19048
• Main Authors: Salama, Nada M, Cai, Rongshuo, Tonbol, Kareem
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group 03.11.2023; Nature Publishing Group UK; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: Air temperature; Climate models; Climatic conditions; Global climate; Greenhouse gases; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Temperature
• ISSN: 2045-2322; 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-46286-7

Abstract This study evaluates the validity of forecasting air temperature ranges in 2100 using the SimCLIM climate projection model at spatial and temporal scales within the Southern Levantine basin. The model utilized historical air temperature data from 2000 to 2016, collected at seven southeastern Mediterranean stations, as well as 74 climate pattern ensembles integrated within SimCLIM. A combination of 40 global climate models (GCMs) and IPCC AR5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios embedded in SimCLIM was employed to forecast mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures for 2100.The findings reveal that the average temperature increase in 2100, relative to the representative concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, will range between 0.8–1.17 °C, 1.48–2.0 °C, 2.1–3.8 °C, and 3.9–4.6 °C, respectively. Due to its acceptable accuracy, the SimCLIM model, incorporating 40 GCMs and 74 climate pattern ensembles, is highly recommended for forecasting future climate conditions. The model was evaluated using available temperature records in the study area, yielding a prediction percentage error of 2%, which strongly supports the use of SimCLIM.