Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 5; no. 1; p. 3712
• Main Authors: Iizumi, Toshichika, Luo, Jing-Jia, Challinor, Andrew J., Sakurai, Gen, Yokozawa, Masayuki, Sakuma, Hirofumi, Brown, Molly E., Yamagata, Toshio
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 15.05.2014
• Subjects: 631/449/2668; 704/106/694/2739; Crops, Agricultural; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; Food Supply; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; multidisciplinary; Oryza; Rain; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Snow; Temperature; Triticum; Zea mays
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4712

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Niño likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.1—5.4% but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by −4.3 to +0.8%. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Niña years tend to be below normal (−4.5 to 0.0%). Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production. El Niño Southern Oscillation affects seasonal climate worldwide; however, it is uncertain how it impacts global crop yields. Here, the authors present a global assessment of the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on crop productivity and show large differences among regions, crop types and cropping technologies.