Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recent...

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Published inAtmospheric chemistry and physics Vol. 17; no. 4; pp. 2709 - 2720
Main Authors Myhre, Gunnar, Aas, Wenche, Ribu, Cherian, Collins, William, Faluvegi, Gregory S., Flanner, Mark, Forster, Piers, Hodnebrog, Oivind, Klimont, Zbigniew, Lund, Marianne T.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Goddard Space Flight Center Copernicus Publications 22.02.2017
Copernicus GmbH
Subjects
Aerosols
Air pollution
Anthropogenic factors
Atmospheric aerosols
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric composition
Atmospheric energy balance
Atmospheric models
Black carbon
Carbon
Carbon emissions
Climate change
Clouds
Computer simulation
Economic development
Economic growth
Economics
Emission analysis
Emission inventories
Emission standards
Emissions
Energy balance
Environment Pollution
Environmental regulations
Geographical distribution
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nitrates
Outdoor air quality
Ozone
Radiative forcing
Simulation
Studies
Sulfur dioxide
Trends
United Kingdom > UK
United States > US
Norway
Europe
Asia
Aerosols
Global Atmospheric Composition Models
Simulations
Ozone
Radiative Forcing
Emissions
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Abstract Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
AbstractList Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. -1 to -3%yr-1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by +0.17±0.08Wm-2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. −1 to −3 % yr−1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by +0.17 ± 0.08 W m−2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. -1 to -3 % yr-1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by +0.17 ± 0.08 W m-2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
Audience PUBLIC
Author Faluvegi, Gregory S.
Aas, Wenche
Klimont, Zbigniew
Collins, William
Flanner, Mark
Lund, Marianne T.
Myhre, Gunnar
Hodnebrog, Oivind
Forster, Piers
Ribu, Cherian
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  surname: Aas
  fullname: Aas, Wenche
  organization: Norwegian Inst. for Air Research
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  surname: Ribu
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  organization: Leipzig Univ
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  surname: Collins
  fullname: Collins, William
  organization: Reading Univ
– sequence: 5
  givenname: Gregory S.
  surname: Faluvegi
  fullname: Faluvegi, Gregory S.
  organization: Columbia Univ
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  givenname: Mark
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  fullname: Klimont, Zbigniew
  organization: International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis
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  givenname: Marianne T.
  surname: Lund
  fullname: Lund, Marianne T.
  organization: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research
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Keywords Aerosols
Global Atmospheric Composition Models
Simulations
Ozone
Radiative Forcing
Emissions
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Snippet Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic...
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SubjectTerms Aerosols
Air pollution
Anthropogenic factors
Atmospheric aerosols
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric composition
Atmospheric energy balance
Atmospheric models
Black carbon
Carbon
Carbon emissions
Climate change
Clouds
Computer simulation
Economic development
Economic growth
Economics
Emission analysis
Emission inventories
Emission standards
Emissions
Energy balance
Environment Pollution
Environmental regulations
Geographical distribution
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nitrates
Outdoor air quality
Ozone
Radiative forcing
Simulation
Studies
Sulfur dioxide
Trends
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Title Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015
URI https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20170002035
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Volume 17
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