Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

• Published in: Atmospheric chemistry and physics Vol. 17; no. 4; pp. 2709 - 2720
• Main Authors: Myhre, Gunnar, Aas, Wenche, Ribu, Cherian, Collins, William, Faluvegi, Gregory S., Flanner, Mark, Forster, Piers, Hodnebrog, Oivind, Klimont, Zbigniew, Lund, Marianne T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Goddard Space Flight Center Copernicus Publications 22.02.2017; Copernicus GmbH
• Subjects: Aerosols; Air pollution; Anthropogenic factors; Atmospheric aerosols; Atmospheric chemistry; Atmospheric composition; Atmospheric energy balance; Atmospheric models; Black carbon; Carbon; Carbon emissions; Climate change; Clouds; Computer simulation; Economic development; Economic growth; Economics; Emission analysis; Emission inventories; Emission standards; Emissions; Energy balance; Environment Pollution; Environmental regulations; Geographical distribution; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Nitrates; Outdoor air quality; Ozone; Radiative forcing; Simulation; Studies; Sulfur dioxide; Trends; United Kingdom > UK; United States > US; Norway; Europe; Asia; Aerosols; Global Atmospheric Composition Models; Simulations; Ozone; Radiative Forcing; Emissions
• ISSN: 1680-7324; 1680-7316; 1680-7324
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.