Dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Turkey from 1985 to 2016

• Published in: Quality & quantity Vol. 52; no. Suppl 1; pp. 711 - 723
• Main Authors: Sayan, Murat, Hınçal, Evren, Şanlıdağ, Tamer, Kaymakamzade, Bilgen, Sa’ad, Farouk Tijjani, Baba, Isa Abdullahi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.12.2018; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome; AIDS; Disease; Equilibrium; HIV; Human immunodeficiency virus; Mathematical models; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Political systems; Registration; Social Sciences; Turkey; HIV/AIDS; Equilibrium points; Turkey; Stability; Dynamics; Basic reproduction ratio
• ISSN: 0033-5177; 1573-7845
• DOI: 10.1007/s11135-017-0648-7

In this paper, we formulated a mathematical model that studies the dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Turkey from 1985 to 2016. We find two equilibrium points, disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Global stability analysis of the equilibria was conducted using Lyapunov function which depends on the basic reproduction ratio R 0 . If R 0  < 1, the disease free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, and if R 0  ≥ 1 the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. We computed and predicted the basic reproduction ratios across all the years. It was found out that there were flaws in the exact values of R 0 which is related to the poor registration system of HIV/AIDS in Turkey. Hence, there is need for the government to improve the system in order to cover the actual cases of the disease. The increase of the basic reproduction ratio over the years also shows the need for the relevant authorities to adopt appropriate control measures in combating the disease.