A disease and non-battle injury model based on Persian Gulf War admission rates

• Published in: American journal of industrial medicine Vol. 45; no. 6; pp. 549 - 557
• Main Authors: Wojcik, Barbara E., Hassell, L. Harrison, Humphrey, Rebecca J., Davis, James M., Oakley, Carolyn J., Stein, Catherine R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company 01.06.2004; Wiley-Liss
• Subjects: admission rates; Adult; Biological and medical sciences; casualty projections; disease and non-battle injury; Female; ground combat; Health Planning; Humans; Indian Ocean; Male; Medical sciences; Middle Aged; Military Medicine; Military Personnel - statistics & numerical data; Miscellaneous; Occupational medicine; Patient Admission - statistics & numerical data; Persian Gulf War; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; war planning; Warfare; Wounds and Injuries - epidemiology; Indian Ocean; Human; Army; Disease; disease and non-battle injury; Injury; admission rates; Forecasting; Incidence; casualty projections; Models; Planning; Persian Gulf War; ground combat; Military; war planning
• ISSN: 0271-3586; 1097-0274
• DOI: 10.1002/ajim.20016

Background Military planners must ensure adequate medical care for deployed troops—including care for disease and non‐battle injuries (DNBI). This study develops a heuristic model with the three distinct phases of a warfighting operation (build‐up, ground combat, post‐combat) to assist in predicting DNBI incidence during warfighting deployments. Methods Inpatient healthcare records of soldiers deployed to the Persian Gulf War who were admitted with DNBI diagnoses were analyzed. DNBI admission rates for the three phases of the operation were examined and compared to rates for US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) posts in the US. Results DNBI admission rates among the phases were distinctly different. The operation's overall rate and 95th percentile daily rate were less than the FORSCOM FY 1990 annual rate. Conclusions The level of combat must be considered. The traditional use of average or overall rates should be abandoned when forecasting DNBI rates. Medical support projections should use separate 95th percentile DNBI admission rates for each of the phases. Am. J. Ind. Med. 45:549–557, 2004. Published 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.