How well do current climate models simulate the linkage between Arctic warming and extratropical cold winters?

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 53; no. 7-8; pp. 4005 - 4018
• Main Authors: Jang, Yeon-Soo, Kug, Jong-Seong, Kim, Baek-Min
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.10.2019; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Advection; Arctic climates; Atmospheric models; Climate; Climate models; Climatic analysis; Climatology; Cold; Cold winters; Computer simulation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Extreme cold; Extreme low temperatures; Geophysics/Geodesy; Ice; Intercomparison; Oceanography; Teleconnection patterns; East Asia; North America; Russia; Arctic region
• ISSN: 0930-7575; 1432-0894
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04765-6

Recently, there has been increasing evidence that Arctic warming and extreme cold events over the northern continents are intimately related. Here, we examine how well current climate models simulate the observed relationship between Arctic warming and extratropical cold winters based on historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). It is shown that most climate models simulate the observed relation reasonably well. In the models, the regional centers of the observed Arctic warming such as the Barents–Kara Seas and the East Siberian–Chukchi Seas are closely associated with the cold winters over East Asia and North America, respectively. However, we also found significant diversity among models. Analyses from the inter-model diversity suggest that atmospheric teleconnection patterns, such as the eastward expansion of the surface high and downstream development of the upper-level cyclonic flow, are keys to the link between Arctic variation and extratropical climate. Temperature budget analysis reveals that these two lower- and upper-level circulations contribute to the leading anomalous cold advection into the downstream regions.