Characterizing unforced decadal climate variability in global climate model large ensembles

This paper compiles indices for the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seven unforced decadal-to-multidecadal climate modes (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Tripole Pacific Index (TPI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation focused over North Pacific (PDO) and South Pacific (SPDO), North Atlantic...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inClimate dynamics Vol. 58; no. 1-2; pp. 211 - 222
Main Authors Yao, Bin, Xu, Yangyang, Dessler, Andrew E., Liu, Chao
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Springer
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Analysis
Atlantic Oscillation
Atmospheric sciences
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climate variability
Climatic changes
Climatology
Correlation
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
El Nino-Southern Oscillation event
Environmental aspects
Geophysics/Geodesy
Global climate
Global climate models
Observational studies
Ocean basins
Oceanography
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Southern Oscillation
Statistical analysis
Wind
China
Pacific decadal oscillation
Global climate models
Unforced decadal-to-multidecadal climate variability
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
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Summary:This paper compiles indices for the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seven unforced decadal-to-multidecadal climate modes (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Tripole Pacific Index (TPI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation focused over North Pacific (PDO) and South Pacific (SPDO), North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), South Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (SAMO), and Indian Ocean basin (IOB)) in a 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.1) and a 35-member ensemble of Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Comparison among various detrending approaches indicates that the best approach to remove the unforced component is by subtracting the ensemble average temperature at each grid point from the original model output. Similar characteristics are investigated in the indices of both MPI-ESM1.1 and CESM1 ensemble models. The results further indicate no statistically significant lead-lag correlations between the unforced multidecadal climate modes originating from North Pacific (e.g., PDO) and North Atlantic (e.g., AMO), suggesting that a high correlation found in previous observational studies may be due to biased detrending approaches.
ISSN:0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI:10.1007/s00382-021-05900-y