Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models

This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decli...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inAccident analysis and prevention Vol. 36; no. 5; pp. 717 - 727
Main Authors Hirst, W.M., Mountain, L.J., Maher, M.J.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2004
Subjects
Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data
Correction for bias
Environment Design
Humans
Regression Analysis
Regression-to-mean
Road safety
Safety
Trend in risk
Trend in risk
Regression-to-mean
Road safety
Correction for bias
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Summary:This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exaggerated. A new correction procedure is described which can effectively eliminate such errors.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-2
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ISSN:0001-4575
1879-2057
DOI:10.1016/j.aap.2003.05.005