Track of Super Typhoon Haiyan Predicted by a Typhoon Model for the South China Sea

Super Typhoon Haiyan was the most notable typhoon in 2013. In this study, results from the operational prediction of Haiyan by a tropical regional typhoon model for the South China Sea are analyzed. It is shown that the model has successfully reproduced Haiyan’s rapid passage through the Philippines...

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Published inActa meteorologica Sinica Vol. 28; no. 4; pp. 510 - 523
Main Author 陈子通 张诚忠 黄燕燕 冯业荣 钟水新 戴光丰 徐道生 杨兆礼
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Heidelberg The Chinese Meteorological Society 01.08.2014
Subjects
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Geophysics and Environmental Physics
Meteorology
中国南海
台风模型
型号
强台风
海燕
积云对流参数化
轨道
预测
ISEW, South China Sea
ISEW, Vietnam
ISEW, Philippines
Super Typhoon Haiyan
typhoon intensity
numerical weather prediction
typhoon track
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Summary:Super Typhoon Haiyan was the most notable typhoon in 2013. In this study, results from the operational prediction of Haiyan by a tropical regional typhoon model for the South China Sea are analyzed. It is shown that the model has successfully reproduced Haiyan’s rapid passage through the Philippines and its northward deflection after its second landfall in Vietnam. However, the predicted intensity of Haiyan is weaker than the observed. An analysis of higher-resolution model simulations indicates that the storm is characterized by an upper-level warm core during its mature stage and a deep layer of easterly flow. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to study the impact of certain physical processes such as the interaction between stratus and cumulus clouds on the improvement of the typhoon intensity forecast. It is found that appropriate boundary layer and cumulus convective parameterizations, and orographic gravity-wave parameterization, as well as improved initial conditions and increased horizontal grid resolution, all help to improve the intensity forecast of Haiyan.
Bibliography:Super Typhoon Haiyan; typhoon track; typhoon intensity; numerical weather prediction
11-2277/P
Super Typhoon Haiyan was the most notable typhoon in 2013. In this study, results from the operational prediction of Haiyan by a tropical regional typhoon model for the South China Sea are analyzed. It is shown that the model has successfully reproduced Haiyan’s rapid passage through the Philippines and its northward deflection after its second landfall in Vietnam. However, the predicted intensity of Haiyan is weaker than the observed. An analysis of higher-resolution model simulations indicates that the storm is characterized by an upper-level warm core during its mature stage and a deep layer of easterly flow. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to study the impact of certain physical processes such as the interaction between stratus and cumulus clouds on the improvement of the typhoon intensity forecast. It is found that appropriate boundary layer and cumulus convective parameterizations, and orographic gravity-wave parameterization, as well as improved initial conditions and increased horizontal grid resolution, all help to improve the intensity forecast of Haiyan.
CHEN Zitong,ZHANG Chengzhong,HUANG Yanyan,FENG Yerong,ZHONG Shuixin,DAI Guangfeng,XU Daosheng,YANG Zhaoli（Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological A dministration, Guangzhou 510080）
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:0894-0525
2095-6037
2198-0934
2191-4788
DOI:10.1007/s13351-014-3269-2