Microbiological and Modeling Approach to Derive Performance Objectives for Bacillus cereus Group in Ready‐to‐Eat Salads

• Published in: Risk analysis Vol. 37; no. 3; pp. 408 - 420
• Main Authors: Cesare, Alessandra, Vitali, Silvia, Trevisani, Marcello, Bovo, Federica, Manfreda, Gerardo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.03.2017
• Subjects: Bacillus cereus; Bacteriology; Celery; censored data; Cheese; Computer simulation; Confidence intervals; Convenience foods; Food contamination & poisoning; Group dynamics; Ingredients; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo methods; Monte Carlo simulation; performance objective; Risk assessment; Salads; sampling plan; spelt salad; Studies; two‐dimensional Monte Carlo simulation; Wheat; United States > US; two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation; Bacillus cereus; censored data; performance objective; sampling plan; spelt salad
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.12617

In this article, the performance objectives (POs) for Bacillus cereus group (BC) in celery, cheese, and spelt added as ingredients in a ready‐to‐eat mixed spelt salad, packaged under modified atmosphere, were calculated using a Bayesian approach. In order to derive the POs, BC detection and enumeration were performed in nine lots of naturally contaminated ingredients and final product. Moreover, the impact of specific production steps on the BC contamination was quantified. Finally, a sampling plan to verify the ingredient lots' compliance with each PO value at a 95% confidence level (CL) was defined. To calculate the POs, detection results as well as results above the limit of detection but below the limit of quantification (i.e., censored data) were analyzed. The most probable distribution of the censored data was determined and two‐dimensional (2D) Monte Carlo simulations were performed. The PO values were calculated to meet a food safety objective of 4 log10 cfu of BC for g of spelt salad at the time of consumption. When BC grows during storage between 0.90 and 1.90 log10 cfu/g, the POs for BC in celery, cheese, and spelt ranged between 1.21 log10 cfu/g for celery and 2.45 log10 cfu/g for spelt. This article represents the first attempt to manage the concept of PO and 2D Monte Carlo simulation in the flow chart of a complex food matrix, including raw and cooked ingredients.