Two centuries of biodiversity discovery and loss in Singapore

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 120; no. 51; p. e2309034120
• Main Authors: Chisholm, Ryan A, Kristensen, Nadiah P, Rheindt, Frank E, Chong, Kwek Yan, Ascher, John S, Lim, Kelvin K P, Ng, Peter K L, Yeo, Darren C J, Meier, Rudolf, Tan, Heok Hui, Giam, Xingli, Yeoh, Yi Shuen, Seah, Wei Wei, Berman, Laura M, Tan, Hui Zhen, Sadanandan, Keren R, Theng, Meryl, Jusoh, Wan F A, Jain, Anuj, Huertas, Blanca, Tan, David J X, Ng, Alicia C R, Teo, Aloysius, Yiwen, Zeng, Cho, Tricia J Y, Sin, Y C Keita
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Academy of Sciences 19.12.2023
• Subjects: Biodiversity; Biological Sciences; Deforestation; Endangered & extinct species; Estimates; Extinction; Mathematical models; Species extinction; Statistical analysis; Statistical models; Tropical environments; Southeast Asia; Singapore; dark extinctions; biodiversity loss; Singapore; tropical extinctions; deforestation
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2309034120

There is an urgent need for reliable data on the impacts of deforestation on tropical biodiversity. The city-state of Singapore has one of the most detailed biodiversity records in the tropics, dating back to the turn of the 19th century. In 1819, Singapore was almost entirely covered in primary forest, but this has since been largely cleared. We compiled more than 200 y of records for 10 major taxonomic groups in Singapore (>50,000 individual records; >3,000 species), and we estimated extinction rates using recently developed and novel statistical models that account for "dark extinctions," i.e., extinctions of undiscovered species. The estimated overall extinction rate was 37% (95% CI [31 to 42%]). Extrapolating our Singapore observations to a future business-as-usual deforestation scenario for Southeast Asia suggests that 18% (95% CI [16 to 22%]) of species will be lost regionally by 2100. Our extinction estimates for Singapore and Southeast Asia are a factor of two lower than previous estimates that also attempted to account for dark extinctions. However, we caution that particular groups such as large mammals, forest-dependent birds, orchids, and butterflies are disproportionately vulnerable.