Hierarchical pattern recognition for tourism demand forecasting

• Published in: Tourism management (1982) Vol. 84; p. 104263
• Main Authors: Hu, Mingming, Qiu, Richard T.R., Wu, Doris Chenguang, Song, Haiyan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2021
• Subjects: Calendar pattern; Daily attraction visits; Floating holidays; Hierarchical pattern recognition; Tourism demand forecasting; Tourism demand pattern; Tourism demand forecasting; Floating holidays; Daily attraction visits; Calendar pattern; Hierarchical pattern recognition; Tourism demand pattern
• ISSN: 0261-5177; 1879-3193
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104263

This study proposes a hierarchical pattern recognition method for tourism demand forecasting. The hierarchy consists of three tiers: the first tier recognizes the calendar pattern of tourism demand, identifying work days and holidays and integrating “floating holidays.” The second tier recognizes the tourism demand pattern in the data stream for different calendar pattern groups. The third tier generates forecasts of future tourism demand. Evidence from daily tourist visits to three attractions in China shows that the proposed method is effective in forecasting daily tourism demand. Moreover, the treatment of “floating holidays” turns out to be more effective and flexible than the commonly adopted dummy variable approach.