Hierarchical pattern recognition for tourism demand forecasting
This study proposes a hierarchical pattern recognition method for tourism demand forecasting. The hierarchy consists of three tiers: the first tier recognizes the calendar pattern of tourism demand, identifying work days and holidays and integrating “floating holidays.” The second tier recognizes th...
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Published in | Tourism management (1982) Vol. 84; p. 104263 |
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Main Authors | , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Elsevier Ltd
01.06.2021
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | This study proposes a hierarchical pattern recognition method for tourism demand forecasting. The hierarchy consists of three tiers: the first tier recognizes the calendar pattern of tourism demand, identifying work days and holidays and integrating “floating holidays.” The second tier recognizes the tourism demand pattern in the data stream for different calendar pattern groups. The third tier generates forecasts of future tourism demand. Evidence from daily tourist visits to three attractions in China shows that the proposed method is effective in forecasting daily tourism demand. Moreover, the treatment of “floating holidays” turns out to be more effective and flexible than the commonly adopted dummy variable approach. |
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ISSN: | 0261-5177 1879-3193 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104263 |