Real curve: Identifying and quantifying the real environmental effects on migration in China

• Published in: Ecological indicators Vol. 133; p. 108348
• Main Authors: Zhao, Zhihao, Pan, Jiangtao, Lei, Ping
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2021; Elsevier
• Subjects: Air quality; Environmental migration; Real curve; Urban amenities; Air quality; Real curve; Urban amenities; Environmental migration
• ISSN: 1470-160X; 1872-7034
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108348

•Urban environmental degradation hinders the choice of migrants to settle in cities.•There is a structural characteristic underlying the environmental effect on migration intentions.•Environmental degradation causes a wave effect on migrants’ settlement intentions.•Cities should improve their environmental quality to attract migrants in the future. In the existing literature, it has been indicated that there is a negative link between air pollution and the settlement intentions of migrants. However, the underlying mechanism is still sleeps in the unopened black box. Based on China Migrants Dynamic Survey data, this paper applies a two-step conditional maximum likelihood method and quantile regression method to analyze the mechanism underlying environmental migration. The results confirm a nonlinear relationship between air quality and migrants’ settlement intentions. Different conditions of air quality differences between cities will lead to structural changes in the settlement intentions of migrants. Specifically, the real curve falls first decreases, increases and then decreases again. Under specific urban environment dimensions, the paper provides a new policy path for urban decision-makers on how to coordinate the human capital of migrants and sustainable urban development.