Allowing for uncertainty in exogenous shocks to CGE models: the case of a new renewable energy sector

The paper explores the importance of allowing for uncertainty in the magnitude of exogenous shocks in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The shock examined is the introduction of a new onshore wind sector in North East Scotland. A simple analytical model is developed to show how, a priori,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEconomic systems research Vol. 29; no. 4; pp. 509 - 527
Main Authors Phimister, Euan, Roberts, Deborah
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Routledge 02.10.2017
Subjects
CGE models
onshore wind
renewable energy
systematic sensitivity analysis
uncertain shocks
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Summary:The paper explores the importance of allowing for uncertainty in the magnitude of exogenous shocks in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The shock examined is the introduction of a new onshore wind sector in North East Scotland. A simple analytical model is developed to show how, a priori, the size of the new sector (the model shock) is uncertain and asymmetrically distributed as a result of spatial correlation in costs and returns across potential development locations. The importance of allowing for this uncertainty is tested by comparing the results from a CGE model where the sector size is assumed known with certainty to those from a model where the sector size is a random variable with an asymmetric distribution. The results show the extent to which allowing for uncertainty can influence the magnitude of estimated impacts with some variables more sensitive to the uncertainty than others.
ISSN:0953-5314
1469-5758
DOI:10.1080/09535314.2017.1309520