Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability

Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal vari...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEnvironmental Research: Climate Vol. 2; no. 2; pp. 23001 - 23014
Main Authors Lehner, Flavio, Deser, Clara
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published IOP Publishing 01.06.2023
Subjects
atmospheric variability
climate change
climate modeling
climate variability
prediction
projection
uncertainty quantification
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Summary:Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review the causes and consequences of internal climate variability, how it can be quantified and accounted for in uncertainty assessments, and what research questions remain most pertinent to better understand its predictive limits and consequences for science and society. This perspective argues for putting internal variability into the spotlight of climate adaptation science and intensifying collaborations between the climate modeling and application communities.
Bibliography:ERCL-100141.R2
ISSN:2752-5295
2752-5295
DOI:10.1088/2752-5295/accf30