Evolution of noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis is associated with prognosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C

• Published in: Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) Vol. 60; no. 1; pp. 65 - 76
• Main Authors: Vergniol, Julien, Boursier, Jérôme, Coutzac, Clélia, Bertrais, Sandrine, Foucher, Juliette, Angel, Camille, Chermak, Faiza, Hubert, Isabelle Fouchard, Merrouche, Wassil, Oberti, Frédéric, Lédinghen, Victor, Calès, Paul
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01.07.2014; Wiley-Blackwell
• Subjects: Adult; Aged; Aspartate Aminotransferases - blood; Biomarkers - blood; Disease Progression; Elasticity Imaging Techniques; Female; Follow-Up Studies; Hepatitis; Hepatitis C; Hepatitis C, Chronic - diagnosis; Hepatitis C, Chronic - metabolism; Hepatitis C, Chronic - mortality; Hepatology; Humans; Kaplan-Meier Estimate; Life Sciences; Liver cirrhosis; Liver Cirrhosis - diagnosis; Liver Cirrhosis - mortality; Liver Cirrhosis - virology; Male; Medical prognosis; Middle Aged; Multivariate Analysis; Platelet Count; Predictive Value of Tests; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Risk Factors; Aspartate Aminotransferases; Predictive Value of Tests; Multivariate Analysis; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Follow-Up Studies; Biological Markers; Risk Factors; Humans; Middle Aged; Kaplan-Meier Estimate; Male; Liver Cirrhosis; Disease Progression; Chronic; Platelet Count; Adult; Female; Aged; Hepatitis C; Elasticity Imaging Techniques
• ISSN: 0270-9139; 1527-3350
• DOI: 10.1002/hep.27069

No data are available about the prediction of long‐term survival using repeated noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We aimed to assess the prognostic value of 3‐year liver stiffness measurement (LSM), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and fibrosis 4 (FIB‐4) evolution in CHC. CHC patients with two LSM (1,000‐1,500 days interval) were prospectively included. Blood fibrosis tests APRI and FIB‐4 were calculated the day of baseline (bLSM) and follow‐up (fLSM) LSM. Evolution of fibrosis tests was expressed as delta: (follow‐up‐baseline results)/duration. Date and cause of death were recorded during follow‐up that started the day of fLSM. In all, 1,025 patients were included. Median follow‐up after fLSM was 38.0 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 27.7‐46.1) during which 35 patients died (14 liver‐related death) and seven had liver transplantation. Prognostic accuracy (Harrell C‐index) of multivariate models including baseline and delta results was not significantly different between LSM and FIB‐4 (P ≥ 0.24), whereas FIB‐4 provided more accurate prognostic models than APRI (P = 0.03). By multivariate analysis including LSM variables, overall survival was independently predicted by bLSM, delta (dLSM), and sustained virological response (SVR). Prognosis was excellent in patients having bLSM <7 kPa, SVR, or no increase (<1 kPa/year) in 7‐14 kPa bLSM. Prognosis was significantly impaired in patients with an increase (≥1 kPa/year) in 7‐14 kPa bLSM, or decrease (≤0 kPa/year) in ≥14 kPa bLSM (P = 0.949 between these two groups). Patients with an increase (>0 kPa/year) in ≥14 kPa bLSM had the worst prognosis. Baseline and delta FIB‐4 also identified patient subgroups with significantly different prognosis. Conclusion: Three‐year evolution of noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis has a strong prognostic value in CHC patients. These tests should be repeated to monitor patients and predict their outcome. (Hepatology 2014;60:65‐76)