Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

• Published in: Global environmental change Vol. 6; no. 4; pp. 261 - 303
• Main Authors: Alcamo, J, Kreileman, GJJ, Bollen, JC, van den Born, GJ, Gerlagh, R, Krol, MS, Toet, AMC, de Vries, HJM
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.09.1996
• Subjects: Agriculture; Brackish; Climate; Consumer demand; Environmental protection; Freshwater; Marine
• ISSN: 0959-3780; 1872-9495
• DOI: 10.1016/S0959-3780(96)00026-X

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change Indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after. The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The opposite is true for most of Asia and Africa. Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas.