Long-Time Trend of Colorectal Cancer Mortality Attributable to High Processed Meat Intake in China and a Bayesian Projection from 2020 to 2030: A Model-Based Study

• Published in: International journal of environmental research and public health Vol. 19; no. 17; p. 10603
• Main Authors: Chen, Fangyao, Chen, Shiyu, Luo, Yaqi, Si, Aima, Yang, Yuhui, Li, Yemian, Hu, Weiwei, Zhang, Yuxiang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland MDPI AG 25.08.2022; MDPI
• Subjects: Age groups; Aged; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian analysis; Cancer; China - epidemiology; Cohort analysis; Colorectal cancer; Colorectal carcinoma; Colorectal Neoplasms - etiology; Disease; Female; Forecasting; Gender differences; Health risks; Humans; Incidence; Male; Males; Meat; Medical prognosis; Mortality; Risk Factors; Trends; Tumors; China; United States > US; Bayesian projection; processed meat; colorectal cancer; age-period-cohort analysis; China
• ISSN: 1660-4601; 1661-7827; 1660-4601
• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191710603

Colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer worldwide. Processed meat was known to be positively associated with a higher risk of gastrointestinal cancer. This study focused on the long-time trends of colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake in China from 1990 to 2019 and the projection for the next decade based on data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used an age-period-cohort model to fit the long-time trend. The joinpoint model was conducted to estimate the average and annual change of the attributable mortality. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the crude attributable mortality from 2020 to 2030. An upward trend in colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake was observed for both sexes in China from 1990 to 2019, with an overall net drift of 4.009% for males and 2.491% for females per year. Projection analysis suggested that the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality would still be high. Our findings suggested that colorectal cancer death attributable to high processed meat intake is still high in China, and elderly males were at higher risk. Gradually decreasing the intake of processed meat could be an effective way to reduce colorectal cancer mortality.