An update on the estimate of predictability of seasonal mean atmospheric variability using North American Multi-Model Ensemble

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 53; no. 12; pp. 7397 - 7409
• Main Authors: Jha, Bhaskar, Kumar, Arun, Hu, Zeng-Zhen
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.12.2019; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Atmospheric models; Atmospheric variability; Climatology; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; El Nino; El Nino phenomena; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event; Ensemble forecasting; Geophysics/Geodesy; Latitude; Mathematical models; Oceanography; Sea surface; Sea surface temperature; Seasonal variability; Seasonal variation; Seasonal variations; Southern Oscillation; Surface temperature; Tropical climate; Variance analysis; Winter; NMME; Predictability; Ensemble mean; 200 hPa height
• ISSN: 0930-7575; 1432-0894
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3217-1

In this analysis, an update in the estimate of predictable component in the wintertime seasonal variability of atmosphere documented by Kumar et al. (J Clim 20: 3888–3901, 2007 ) is provided. The updated estimate of seasonal predictability of 200-hPa height (Z200) was based on North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast system. The seasonal prediction systems participating in the NMME have gone through an evolution over a 10-year period compared to models that were used in the analysis by Kumar et al. (J Clim 20: 3888–3901, 2007 ). The general features in the estimates of predictable signal conform with previous results—estimates of predictability remain high in the tropical latitudes and decrease towards the extratropical latitudes; and predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal forecast systems is still primarily associated with ENSO variability. As the horizontal and vertical resolution of the models used in the current analysis is generally higher, it did not have a marked influence on the estimate of the relative amplitude of predictable component. Although the analysis indicates an increase in the estimate of predictable component, however, it maybe related to the increase in ENSO related SST variance over 1982–2000 relative to 1950–2000 (over which the analysis of Kumar et al. in J Clim 20: 3888–3901, 2007 was). The focus of the analysis is wintertime variability in Z200 and its comparison with results in Kumar et al. (J Clim 20: 3888–3901, 2007 ), some analyses for summertime variability in Z200, and further, for sea surface temperature, 2-m temperature and precipitation are also presented.