Combined impacts of future land-use and climate stressors on water resources and quality in groundwater and surface waterbodies of the upper Thames river basin, UK

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 631-632; pp. 962 - 986
• Main Authors: Hutchins, M.G., Abesser, C., Prudhomme, C., Elliott, J.A., Bloomfield, J.P., Mansour, M.M., Hitt, O.E.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 01.08.2018
• Subjects: Aquifer; Climate change; Process-based model; Reservoir; River; Scenarios; Scenarios; Climate change; River; Reservoir; Aquifer; Process-based model
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.052

It is widely acknowledged that waterbodies are becoming increasingly affected by a wide range of drivers of change arising from human activity. To illustrate how this can be quantified a linked modelling approach was applied in the Thames river basin in southern UK. Changes to river flows, water temperature, river and reservoir quality were predicted under three contrasting future “storylines”; one an extension of present day rates of economic development, the others representing more extreme and less sustainable visions. Modelling revealed that lower baseflow conditions will arise under all storylines. For the less extreme storyline river water quality is likely to deteriorate but reservoir quality will improve slightly. The two more extreme futures could not be supported by current management strategies to meet water demand. To satisfy these scenarios, transfer of river water from outside the Thames river basin would be necessary. Consequently, some improvement over present day water quality in the river may be seen, and for most indicators conditions would be better than in the less extreme storyline. However, because phosphorus concentrations will rise, the invoked changes in water demand management would not be of a form suitable to prevent a marked deterioration in reservoir water quality. [Display omitted] •Future climate and human activity threaten water resources in the Thames Basin UK.•A linked model approach was used and included groundwater, river and lake domains.•Flow and quality modelled for three future policy and management scenarios.•Continuation of current economic development reduces flow and impairs river quality.•Water imports needed in less sustainable futures partly preserve freshwater status.