Dynamical prediction of flu seasonality driven by ambient temperature: influenza vs. common cold

This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the ambient temperature. It is argued that this approach allows fo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe European physical journal. B, Condensed matter physics Vol. 89; no. 1; pp. 1 - 6
Main Author Postnikov, Eugene B.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2016
Springer
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Ambient temperature
Analysis
Cold (Disease)
Complex Systems
Condensed Matter Physics
Fluid- and Aerodynamics
Health aspects
Influenza
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Regular Article
Solid State Physics
Weather forecasting
Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
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Summary:This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the ambient temperature. It is argued that this approach allows for the forecast of common cold, but not of influenza in a strict sense. The difference in their kinetic models is discussed with reference to the clinical background.
ISSN:1434-6028
1434-6036
DOI:10.1140/epjb/e2015-50845-7