Mapping Rift Valley fever and malaria risk over West Africa using climatic indicators

• Published in: Atmospheric science letters Vol. 12; no. 1; pp. 96 - 103
• Main Authors: Caminade, C., Ndione, J. A., Kebe, C. M. F., Jones, A. E., Danuor, S., Tay, S., Tourre, Y. M., Lacaux, J‐P., Vignolles, C., Duchemin, J. B., Jeanne, I., Morse, A. P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 01.01.2011; John Wiley & Sons, Inc; Wiley
• Subjects: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics; Climate change; Coccidioidomycosis; disease modelling; Epidemics; Field tests; Health risks; Human diseases; Indicators; Infectious diseases; Malaria; Mapping; Modelling; Physics; Remote sensing; Rift Valley fever; Risk; Valleys; Vector-borne diseases; Viral diseases; West Africa; United Kingdom > UK; Senegal; West Africa; Africa; Mauritania; Rift Valley fever; malaria; disease modelling; vector-borne diseases; West Africa; climate change
• ISSN: 1530-261X; 1530-261X
• DOI: 10.1002/asl.296

The aim of this study is to highlight the recent progress in mapping vector‐borne diseases in West Africa using modelling and field experiments. Based on climatic indicators, methods have been developed to map Rift Valley fever (RVF) and malaria risk. Modelling results corroborate that northern Senegal and southern Mauritania appear to be critical areas for RVF outbreaks and that the malaria epidemic fringe is located at the northern edge of the Sahel. Future projections highlight that the malaria risk decreases over northern Sahel. This is related to a southward shift of the potential epidemic belt in autumn. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society