Searching for Networks: Ecological Connectivity for Amphibians Under Climate Change

• Published in: Environmental management (New York) Vol. 65; no. 1; pp. 46 - 61
• Main Authors: Campos, Felipe S., Lourenço-de-Moraes, Ricardo, Ruas, Danilo S., Mira-Mendes, Caio V., Franch, Marc, Llorente, Gustavo A., Solé, Mirco, Cabral, Pedro
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 2020; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Amphibians; Animals; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Biodiversity; Brazil; Circuit design; Climate Change; Community planning; Computer simulation; Conductance; Conservation; Conservation of Natural Resources; Corridors; Dispersal; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecological effects; Ecology; Ecosystem; Environment; Environmental Management; Fluxes; Forest management; Forestry Management; Forests; Interdisciplinary research; Interdisciplinary studies; Landscape; Landscape architecture; Landscape design; Low resistance; Nature Conservation; Nature reserves; Protected areas; Reptiles & amphibians; Resistance; Spatial analysis; Species richness; Viability; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Brazil; Atlantic Forest; Anura; Climate models; Atlantic Forest; Functional corridor; Dispersal ability
• ISSN: 0364-152X; 1432-1009
• DOI: 10.1007/s00267-019-01240-0

Ecological connectivity depends on key elements within the landscape, which can support ecological fluxes, species richness and long-term viability of a biological community. Landscape planning requires clear aims and quantitative approaches to identify which key elements can reinforce the spatial coherence of protected areas design. We aim to explore the probability of the ecological connectivity of forest remnants and amphibian species distributions for current and future climate scenarios across the Central Corridor of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Integrating amphibian conservation, climate change and ecological corridors, we design a landscape ranking based on graph and circuit theories. To identify the sensitivity of connected areas to climate-dependent changes, we use the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate by means of simulations for 2080–2100, representing a moderated emission scenario within an optimistic context. Our findings indicate that more than 70% of forest connectivity loss by climate change may drastically reduce amphibian dispersal in this region. We show that high amphibian turnover rates tend to be greater in the north-eastern edges of the corridor across ensembles of forecasts. Our spatial analysis reveals a general pattern of low-conductance areas in landscape surface, yet with some well-connected patches suggesting potential ecological corridors. Atlantic Forest reserves are expected to be less effective in a near future. For improved conservation outcomes, we recommend some landscape paths with low resistance values across space and time. We highlight the importance of maintaining forest remnants in the southern Bahia region by drafting a blueprint for functional biodiversity corridors.