Short-term solar irradiance forecasting using convolutional neural networks and cloud imagery

• Published in: Environmental research letters Vol. 16; no. 4; p. 44045
• Main Authors: Choi, Minsoo, Rachunok, Benjamin, Nateghi, Roshanak
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.04.2021
• Subjects: Artificial neural networks; Atmospheric models; Cloud computing; convolutional neural network; deep learning; Energy harvesting; Irradiance; Mathematical models; Mesoscale phenomena; Model accuracy; Neural networks; Prediction models; remote sensing; renewable energy; Satellite imagery; Solar energy; solar irradiance forecasting; Statistical analysis; Statistical models; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 1748-9326; 1748-9326
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe06d

Abstract Access to accurate, generalizable and scalable solar irradiance prediction is critical for smooth solar-grid integration, especially in the light of the accelerated global adoption of solar energy production. Both physical and statistical prediction models of solar irradiance have been proposed in the literature. Physical models require meteorological forecasts—generated by computationally expensive models—to predict solar irradiance, with limited accuracy in sub-daily predictions. Statistical models leverage in-situ measurements which require expensive equipment and do not account for meso-scale atmospheric dynamics. We address these fundamental gaps by developing a convolutional global horizontal irradiance prediction model, using convolutional neural networks and publicly accessible satellite cloud images. Our proposed model predicts solar irradiance in 12 different locations in the US for various prediction time horizons. Our model yields up to 24% improvement in an hour-ahead predictions and 26% in a day-ahead predictions compared to a persistence forecast. Moreover, using saliency maps and target-location-focused cropping, we demonstrate the benefits of incorporating meso-scale atmospheric dynamics for prediction performance. Our results are critical for energy systems planners, utility managers and electricity market participants to ensure efficient harvesting of the solar energy and reliable operation of the grid.