Nonexpert Beliefs about the Macroeconomic Consequences of Economic and Noneconomic Events

Economists assume that individuals think about the economy like economists, which is especially important in all rational expectations and economic voting models. Despite contrasting evidence there has been little research on actual nonexpert macroeconomic beliefs. In this paper. I present the resul...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPublic choice Vol. 132; no. 3/4; pp. 291 - 304
Main Author Roos, Michael W. M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Dordrecht Springer 01.09.2007
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Belief & doubt
Beliefs
Bias
College students
Communication
Economic behaviour
Economic forecasting
Economic impact analysis
Economic information
Economic policy
Economic Theories
Economic theory
Economics
Economics education
Economists
Expectation
Experiments
GDP
Gender differences
Gross Domestic Product
Macroeconomics
Men
News
News content
Oil pollution
Politicians
Politics
Public choice
Rational expectations
Studies
Tax cuts
Tax reform
Voting Behavior
Voting behaviour
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Summary:Economists assume that individuals think about the economy like economists, which is especially important in all rational expectations and economic voting models. Despite contrasting evidence there has been little research on actual nonexpert macroeconomic beliefs. In this paper. I present the results of a survey among students designed to find out whether they distinguish macroeconomically relevant from irrelevant events. I find that even people with some economic background tend to overestimate the effects of noneconomic events. This bias is a function of gender economic training, and the preferred means of mass communication.
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ISSN:0048-5829
1573-7101
DOI:10.1007/s11127-007-9152-2