Situation of COVID-19 in Brazil in August 2020: An Analysis via Growth Models as Implemented in the ModInterv System for Monitoring the Pandemic

• Published in: Journal of control, automation & electrical systems Vol. 33; no. 2; pp. 645 - 663
• Main Authors: Vasconcelos, Giovani L., Duarte-Filho, Gerson C., Brum, Arthur A., Ospina, Raydonal, Almeida, Francisco A. G., Macêdo, Antônio M. S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 01.04.2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Acceleration; Applications programs; Classification; Classification schemes; Control; Control and Systems Theory; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Deceleration; Disease control; Electrical Engineering; Empirical analysis; Engineering; Epidemics; Geographical distribution; Growth models; Mechatronics; Mobile computing; Pandemics; Public health; Robotics; Robotics and Automation; Saturation; Brazil; COVID-19; Generalized logistic model; Epidemiological models; Growth models; Public health policies
• ISSN: 2195-3880; 2195-3899
• DOI: 10.1007/s40313-021-00853-3

In this work we introduce a novel methodology to classify the dynamical stages of an epidemic, based on the different acceleration regimes of the corresponding growth curve. Our classification scheme is implemented by fitting the empirical data with a general class of mathematical growth models, from which we compute not only the growth acceleration but also its jerk and jounce (i.e., the first and second derivatives of the acceleration, respectively), thus allowing for a finer distinction of the epidemic stages. Using this methodology, we analyze the cumulative curves of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the 26 Brazilian States and the Federal District, up until August 21, 2020. The online application ModIntervCOVID-19, which automatically implements the classification scheme and which can be accessed via an internet browser or a mobile app, was used to investigate the epidemic stages in each of the Brazilian federal units. The analysis revealed that almost all states in the Northern and Northeastern regions were already in the saturation phase, meaning that the epidemic was relatively under control, whereas in all Southern states and in most states in the Midwest the epidemic was still accelerating or showed only a slight deceleration. The Southeastern region presented a great diversity of epidemic stages, with each state being found at a different stage, ranging from acceleration to saturation. It is argued that understanding this heterogeneous geographical distribution of the epidemic is relevant for public health authorities, as it may help in devising more effective strategies against the COVID-19 pandemic in a continental country like Brazil.