Impact of Meteorological Conditions on the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poland

• Published in: International journal of environmental research and public health Vol. 18; no. 8; p. 3951
• Main Authors: Bochenek, Bogdan, Jankowski, Mateusz, Gruszczynska, Marta, Nykiel, Grzegorz, Gruszczynski, Maciej, Jaczewski, Adam, Ziemianski, Michal, Pyrc, Robert, Figurski, Mariusz, Pinkas, Jarosław
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland MDPI AG 09.04.2021; MDPI
• Subjects: Antigens; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Cross correlation; Decision making; Disease transmission; Environmental factors; Fatalities; Humans; Humidity; Infections; Infectious diseases; Investigations; Laboratories; Meteorological Concepts; Pandemics; Poland - epidemiology; Principal components analysis; Public health; Quarantine; Relative humidity; SARS-CoV-2; Seasonal variations; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Sunlight; Temperature; Time series; Variables; Viruses; Websites; Wind speed; Poland; Europe; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; transmission; relative humidity; sunshine; Poland; temperature; coronavirus
• ISSN: 1660-4601; 1661-7827; 1660-4601
• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18083951

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The role of environmental factors in COVID-19 transmission is unclear. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed) and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Data on a daily number of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and the number of COVID-19-related deaths were gatheredfrom the official governmental website. Meteorological observations from 55 synoptic stations in Poland were used. Moreover, reports on the movement of people across different categories of places were collected. A cross-correlation function, principal component analysis and random forest were applied. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration, relative humidity and variability of mean daily temperature affected the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. An increase intemperature and sunshine hours decreased the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The occurrence of high humidity caused an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases 14 days later. Decreased sunshine duration and increased air humidity had a negative impact on the number of COVID-19-related deaths. Our study provides information that may be used by policymakers to support the decision-making process in nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.