The Assessment of Impacts and Risks of Climate Change on Agriculture (AIRCCA) model: a tool for the rapid global risk assessment for crop yields at a spatially explicit scale

A main channel through which climate change is expected to affect the economy is the agricultural sector. Large spatial variability in these impacts and high levels of uncertainty in climate change projections create methodological challenges for assessing the consequences this sector could face. Cr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inSpatial economic analysis Vol. 15; no. 3; pp. 262 - 279
Main Authors Estrada, Francisco, Botzen, W. J. Wouter, Calderon-Bustamante, Oscar
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Glasgow Routledge 02.07.2020
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects
Agriculture
Climate change
Corn
integrated assessment model
panel model
Projections
Rice
Risk assessment
Uncertainty
Wheat
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Summary:A main channel through which climate change is expected to affect the economy is the agricultural sector. Large spatial variability in these impacts and high levels of uncertainty in climate change projections create methodological challenges for assessing the consequences this sector could face. Crop emulators based on econometric fixed-effects models that can closely reproduce biophysical models are estimated. With these reduced form crop emulators, we develop AIRCCA, a user-friendly software for the assessment of impacts and risks of climate change on agriculture, that allows stakeholders to make a rapid global assessment of the effects of climate change on maize, wheat and rice yields. AIRCCA produces spatially explicit probabilistic impact scenarios and user-defined risk metrics for the main four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) emissions scenarios.
ISSN:1742-1772
1742-1780
DOI:10.1080/17421772.2020.1754448