Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata

• Published in: International journal of environmental research and public health Vol. 16; no. 23; p. 4683
• Main Authors: Bin, Sheng, Sun, Gengxin, Chen, Chih-Cheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland MDPI AG 25.11.2019; MDPI
• Subjects: Age; Communicable Diseases - transmission; Disease Susceptibility; Epidemics; Humans; Infectious diseases; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; Influenza, Human; Mathematical models; Models, Biological; Models, Theoretical; Ordinary differential equations; Population Density; Research methodology; Researchers; Simulation; Studies; System theory; infectious disease dynamics; propagation model; pandemic influenza A; H1N1; numerical simulation; cellular automata
• ISSN: 1660-4601; 1661-7827; 1660-4601
• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16234683

Infectious diseases are an important cause of human death. The study of the pathogenesis, spread regularity, and development trend of infectious diseases not only provides a theoretical basis for future research on infectious diseases, but also has practical guiding significance for the prevention and control of their spread. In this paper, a controlled differential equation and an objective function of infectious diseases were established by mathematical modeling. Based on cellular automata theory and a compartmental model, the SLIRDS (Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Susceptible) model was constructed, a model which can better reflect the actual infectious process of infectious diseases. Considering the spread of disease in different populations, the model combines population density, sex ratio, and age structure to set the evolution rules of the model. Finally, on the basis of the SLIRDS model, the complex spread process of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) was simulated. The simulation results are similar to the macroscopic characteristics of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in real life, thus the accuracy and rationality of the SLIRDS model are confirmed.