Is the Random Forest Algorithm Suitable for Predicting Parkinson’s Disease with Mild Cognitive Impairment out of Parkinson’s Disease with Normal Cognition?

• Published in: International journal of environmental research and public health Vol. 17; no. 7; p. 2594
• Main Author: Byeon, Haewon
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland MDPI AG 10.04.2020; MDPI
• Subjects: Activities of Daily Living; Algorithms; Cognition - physiology; Cognitive Dysfunction; Epidemiology; Female; Humans; Male; Medical imaging; Neuropsychological Tests; Parkinson Disease - diagnosis; Parkinson's disease; Predictive Value of Tests; Republic of Korea; Sensitivity and Specificity; Studies; Republic of Korea; United Kingdom > UK; England; South Korea; Parkinson’s disease with mild cognitive impairment; cognitive function; neuropsychological test; random forest; data mining
• ISSN: 1660-4601; 1661-7827; 1660-4601
• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17072594

Because it is possible to delay the progression of dementia if it is detected and treated in an early stage, identifying mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an important primary goal of dementia treatment. The objectives of this study were to develop a random forest-based Parkinson’s disease with mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI) prediction model considering health behaviors, environmental factors, medical history, physical functions, depression, and cognitive functions using the Parkinson’s Dementia Clinical Epidemiology Data (a national survey conducted by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and to compare the prediction accuracy of our model with those of decision tree and multiple logistic regression models. We analyzed 96 subjects (PD-MCI = 45; Parkinson’s disease with normal cognition (PD-NC) = 51 subjects). The prediction accuracy of the model was calculated using the overall accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Based on the random forest analysis, the major risk factors of PD-MCI were, in descending order of magnitude, Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) sum of boxes, Untitled Parkinson’s Disease Rating (UPDRS) motor score, the Korean Mini Mental State Examination (K-MMSE) total score, and the K- Korean Montreal Cognitive Assessment (K-MoCA) total score. The random forest method achieved a higher sensitivity than the decision tree model. Thus, it is advisable to develop a protocol to easily identify early stage PDD based on the PD-MCI prediction model developed in this study, in order to establish individualized monitoring to track high-risk groups.