The effect of climate factors on the size of forest wildfires (case study: Prague-East district, Czech Republic)

This paper presents a new approach to identifying the climate variables that influence the size of the area burned by forest wildfires. Multiple linear regression was used in combination with nonlinear variable transformations to determine relevant nonlinear forest wildfire size functions. Data from...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of forestry research Vol. 33; no. 4; pp. 1291 - 1300
Main Authors Mohammadi, Zohreh, Lohmander, Peter, Kašpar, Jan, Berčák, Roman, Holuša, Jaroslav, Marušák, Robert
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Singapore Springer Nature Singapore 01.08.2022
Springer
Springer Nature B.V
Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences,Czech University of Life Sciences Prague,Kamycká129, 16500 Praha-Suchdol,Czech Republic%Optimal Solutions in Cooperation with Linnaeus University, Umea,Sweden
Subjects
Air temperature
Analysis
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Case studies
Climate
Climate change
Climate effects
Forestry
Forests
Global temperature changes
Life Sciences
Original Paper
Relative humidity
Vapor pressure
Water vapor
Wildfires
Wind
Wind speed
Czech Republic
Climate change
Climatic variables
Burned forest area
Multiple linear regression
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Summary:This paper presents a new approach to identifying the climate variables that influence the size of the area burned by forest wildfires. Multiple linear regression was used in combination with nonlinear variable transformations to determine relevant nonlinear forest wildfire size functions. Data from the Prague-East District of the Czech Republic was used for model derivation. Individual burned forest area was hypothesized as a function of water vapor pressure, air temperature and wind speed. Wind speed was added to enhance predictions of the size of forest wildfires, and further improvements to the utility of prediction methods were added to the regression equation. The results show that if the air temperature increases, it may contain less water and the fuel will become drier. The size of the burned area then increases. If the relative humidity in the air increases and the wind speed decreases, the size of the burned area is reduced. Our model suggests that changes in the climate factors caused by ongoing climate change could cause significant changes in the size of wildfire in forests.
ISSN:1007-662X
1993-0607
DOI:10.1007/s11676-021-01413-w