Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity

Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, Compared to preindustria/c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inScience bulletin Vol. 62; no. 24; pp. 1673 - 1680
Main Authors Wang, Xiaoxin, Jiang, Dabang, Lang, Xianmei
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Netherlands Elsevier B.V 30.12.2017
Subjects
air temperature
climate
Climate extremes
data collection
Global warming
Linkage
Projection
Uncertainty
Climate extremes
Projection
Uncertainty
Global warming
Linkage
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Summary:Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, Compared to preindustria/conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it, such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 ℃ global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships, Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming magnitude. Compared with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5℃.
Bibliography:Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario, Compared to preindustria/conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it, such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 ℃ global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships, Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming magnitude. Compared with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5℃.
Projection ;Global warming ;Climate extremes; Linkage ;Uncertainty
10-1298/N
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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content type line 23
ISSN:2095-9273
2095-9281
DOI:10.1016/j.scib.2017.11.004