Comparisons of risk prediction methods using nested case‐control data

Using both simulated and real datasets, we compared two approaches for estimating absolute risk from nested case‐control (NCC) data and demonstrated the feasibility of using the NCC design for estimating absolute risk. In contrast to previously published results, we successfully demonstrated not onl...

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Published inStatistics in medicine Vol. 36; no. 3; pp. 455 - 465
Main Authors Salim, Agus, Delcoigne, Bénédicte, Villaflores, Krystyn, Koh, Woon‐Puay, Yuan, Jian‐Min, Dam, Rob M., Reilly, Marie
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 10.02.2017
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
Subjects
absolute risk
Age Factors
Cardiovascular Diseases - etiology
Case-Control Studies
Classification
Clinical trials
Comparative studies
Confounding Factors (Epidemiology)
cost efficiency
Cost reduction
Data analysis
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Datasets
Estimating techniques
Female
Humans
Male
Models, Statistical
prediction models
prognosis
Proportional Hazards Models
Risk assessment
Risk Assessment - methods
risk calculator
Risk Factors
Sex Factors
Statistical analysis
Statistics as Topic - methods
study design
absolute risk
prediction models
risk calculator
cost efficiency
study design
prognosis
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Summary:Using both simulated and real datasets, we compared two approaches for estimating absolute risk from nested case‐control (NCC) data and demonstrated the feasibility of using the NCC design for estimating absolute risk. In contrast to previously published results, we successfully demonstrated not only that data from a matched NCC study can be used to unbiasedly estimate absolute risk but also that matched studies give better statistical efficiency and classify subjects into more appropriate risk categories. Our result has implications for studies that aim to develop or validate risk prediction models. In addition to the traditional full cohort study and case‐cohort study, researchers designing these studies now have the option of performing a NCC study with huge potential savings in cost and resources. Detailed explanations on how to obtain the absolute risk estimates under the proposed approach are given. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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ISSN:0277-6715
1097-0258
1097-0258
DOI:10.1002/sim.7143