Assessing the conservation of eastern Ecuadorian cloud forests in climate change scenarios

• Published in: Perspectives in ecology and conservation Vol. 20; no. 2; pp. 159 - 167
• Main Authors: de Meyer, Alexander P.R.R., Ortega-Andrade, H. Mauricio, Moulatlet, Gabriel M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.04.2022; Elsevier
• Subjects: Andes; Community-level approach; Ecuador; MaxEnt; Neotropics; Protected areas; Protected areas; GCM; Ecuador; PA; Andes; MaxEnt; ENM; TMCF; Neotropics; ENE; Community-level approach
• ISSN: 2530-0644; 2530-0644
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2022.01.001

[Display omitted] •The tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) in Ecuador are endangered ecosystems that may be affected by climate change.•Community – level ecological niche models are useful to reconstruct TMCF boundaries to guide conservation strategies.•By year 2050, 42 -54 % TMCF area reduction and 207 – 429 m upwards elevational shift was predicted by our models.•TMCF model corresponds to 68% of the Ecuadorian ecosystem map, with transitional zones on adjacent montane ecosystems.•TMCF under protected areas might increase in future scenarios, as climatic suitability areas will move to higher elevations. The Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCF) of South America are ecosystems facing rapid changes due to global warming. Herein, we used species climatic niche models to reconstruct the climatic boundaries of TMCF and to predict range shifts in climate change scenarios. Thirty-two species from three taxonomic groups (plants, birds, and amphibians) were modelled using community-level niche models under current and future climatic scenarios, as determined by two Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the year 2050. The community-level reconstructions were used to detect the overlap of TMCF with surrounding ecosystems and with current protected areas (PA). Approximate 42–54% area reduction and 207–429 m upward elevational shift was predicted under climate scenarios. Accordingly, severe environmental contractions (loss of suitability area) due to climate change were detected by our models. TMCF area within PA may increase 17–38% by 2050. We identified transition zones rather than clear limits of vegetational boundaries of TMCF with adjacent ecosystems, which suggested that both TMCF and transitional zones will be impacted, to what conservation strategies targeting TMCF and adjacent ecosystems should be prioritized.