Prediction model for short‐term traffic flow based on a K‐means‐gated recurrent unit combination

• Published in: IET intelligent transport systems Vol. 16; no. 5; pp. 675 - 690
• Main Authors: Sun, Zhaoyun, Hu, Yuanjiao, Li, Wei, Feng, Shaowei, Pei, Lili
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 01.05.2022
• ISSN: 1751-956X; 1751-9578
• DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12165

Short‐term forecasting of traffic flow is an indispensable part of easing traffic pressure. Considering that different traffic flow patterns will affect the short‐term traffic flow prediction results, a combined method based on the K‐means clustering algorithm and gated recurrent unit (GRU) is proposed to build a short‐term traffic flow prediction model to overcome the above problems. The K‐means algorithm is used to cluster historical traffic flow data to establish different traffic flow pattern libraries. The K‐nearest neighbour (KNN) classification algorithm is used to determine the historical traffic flow pattern most similar to the traffic flow change trend of the date to be predicted. All historical traffic flow data in this category is used training samples to make targeted predictions. The traffic flow data of performance measurement system (PeMS) in California, USA is used to verify the performance of the proposed model. Compared with the GRU network, stacked auto encoders (SAEs), random forest (RF), and support vector machine regression (SVR), the results show that the proposed combination model K‐means‐GRU considers the diversity of traffic flow patterns and improves the prediction accuracy, it can better solve the short‐term traffic flow prediction problem.