Forecasting Infant Mortality Rate for China: A Comparison Between α-Sutte Indicator, ARIMA, and Holt-Winters

The purpose of this study is to apply the α-Sutte Indicator in forecasting data. α-Sutte Indicator is a new forecasting method that was developed in 2017 by Ansari Saleh Ahmar. To see the accuracy of these methods, the forecasting results of the α-Sutte Indicator will be forecasting methods compared...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of physics. Conference series Vol. 1028; no. 1; pp. 12195 - 12200
Main Authors Kurniasih, Nuning, Ahmar, Ansari Saleh, Hidayat, Dadang Rahmat, Agustin, Herlina, Rizal, Edwin
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Bristol IOP Publishing 01.06.2018
Subjects
Forecasting
Infant mortality
Physics
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Summary:The purpose of this study is to apply the α-Sutte Indicator in forecasting data. α-Sutte Indicator is a new forecasting method that was developed in 2017 by Ansari Saleh Ahmar. To see the accuracy of these methods, the forecasting results of the α-Sutte Indicator will be forecasting methods compared to other items, namely: ARIMA and HoltWinters. Based on the results of forecasting, it is found that α-Sutte Indicator has MSE and MAPE values that are lower than other methods (ARIMA and HoltWinters). This is supported by MSE data from α-Sutte Indicator smaller than ARIMA(2,2,2) and HoltWinters i.e. 0.03; 3.06; and 3.15.
ISSN:1742-6588
1742-6596
DOI:10.1088/1742-6596/1028/1/012195