Predicting range expansion of the map butterfly in Northern Europe using bioclimatic models

• Published in: Biodiversity and conservation Vol. 17; no. 3; pp. 623 - 641
• Main Authors: Mitikka, Varpu, Heikkinen, Risto K., Luoto, Miska, Araújo, Miguel B., Saarinen, Kimmo, Pöyry, Juha, Fronzek, Stefan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.03.2008; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Animal migration; Annual variations; Bioclimatology; Biodiversity; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Butterflies & moths; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Conservation biology; Conservation Biology/Ecology; Dispersal; Ecology; Life Sciences; Original Paper; Bioclimatic envelope model; Climate change; Species distribution modelling; Range shift; Dispersal jump; Model accuracy
• ISSN: 0960-3115; 1572-9710
• DOI: 10.1007/s10531-007-9287-y

The two main goals of this study are: (i) to examine the range shifts of a currently northwards expanding species, the map butterfly ( Araschnia levana ), in relation to annual variation in weather, and (ii) to test the capability of a bioclimatic envelope model, based on broad-scale European distribution data, to predict recent distributional changes (2000–2004) of the species in Finland. A significant relationship between annual maximum dispersal distance of the species and late summer temperature was detected. This suggests that the map butterfly has dispersed more actively in warmer rather than cooler summers, the most notable dispersal events being promoted by periods of exceptionally warm weather and southerly winds. The accuracy of the broad-scale bioclimatic model built for the species with European data using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was good based on split-sample evaluation for a single period. However, the model’s performance was poor when applied to predict range shifts in Finland. Among the many potential explanations for the poor success of the transferred bioclimatic model, is the fact that bioclimatic envelope models do not generally account for species dispersal. This and other uncertainties support the view that bioclimatic models should be applied with caution when they are used to project future range shifts of species.