Biomarkers as predictors of inpatient mortality in fractured neck of femur patients

• Published in: Archives of gerontology and geriatrics Vol. 111; p. 105004
• Main Authors: Geleit, Ryan, Bence, Matthew, Samouel, Phillip, Craik, Johnathan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 01.08.2023
• Subjects: Aged; Biomarkers; Femoral Neck Fractures - surgery; Femur; Hip fracture; Hip Fractures - surgery; Humans; Inpatients; Male; Mortality; Retrospective Studies; State Medicine; Survival; Biomarkers; Hip fracture; Femur; Survival; Mortality
• ISSN: 0167-4943; 1872-6976
• DOI: 10.1016/j.archger.2023.105004

•Routinely captured biomarker data can be useful for assessing the prognosis of patients who have suffered a hip fracture.•Hypoalbuminemia and lymphocytopenia are independent predictors of inpatient mortality.•Patients over the age of 85 and men and are also at greater risk. Hip fractures are common and it is estimated to cost the National Health Service (NHS) around £2 billion/year. The majority of these patients are elderly and they require careful perioperative management as morbidity and mortality are high. This study aims to look at routinely gathered biomarker data and baseline demographics to evaluate if they may be used to predict inpatient mortality. The study included 2158 patients from a single Centre over a 5-year period. Inclusion criteria: age>60, confirmed fractured neck of femur on radiological imaging. Exclusion criteria: pathological fractures, patients treated non-operatively, missing data. Univariate followed by multivariate analysis was conducted to identify the independent predictors of inpatient mortality. The variables found to be independent predictors of inpatient mortality were: age > 85, sex (male), albumin < 35, lymphocytes < 1, American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) grade > 3. For the final derived multivariate logistic regression model, a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to assess the ability of the included variables to predict inpatient mortality. The area under the curve was 0.794 which together with sensitivity of 63.2% and a specificity of 79.1% at a cut value of 0.1. This paper supports research previously conducted in this field, showing the prognostic value of both biomarker (albumin and lymphocytes), and non-biomarker data (ASA grade, age and gender) in predicting mortality in patients who have sustained a hip fracture.