Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction

Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we con...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inMathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE Vol. 12; no. 5; p. 1055
Main Authors Wang, Xiang-Sheng, Zhong, Luoyi
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States 01.10.2015
Subjects
Basic Reproduction Number
Computer Simulation
Epidemics
Guinea
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - epidemiology
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - physiopathology
Humans
Liberia
Models, Theoretical
Public Health
Regression Analysis
Sierra Leone
Time Factors
Liberia
Guinea
Sierra Leone
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Summary:Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future.
ISSN:1551-0018
DOI:10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055